使用美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候预报系统版本2为立陶宛领土生成的月度和季节性预报的准确性

IF 1 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
A. Bukantis, Gytis Valaika
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的目的是评估使用美国国家海洋和大气管理局的气候预测系统第2版(CFSv2)为立陶宛领土生成的每月和季节性气温和降水量预测的准确性,并确定各个预测初始化时存在的大气环流条件。气温和降水数据来自2012年至2019年期间的三个月平均和月平均空间异常。预测的准确性是根据三个标准进行的:范围、状态和各自预测异常的绝对误差。研究表明,在目标月份或季节之前0-20天初始化的预测往往是最熟练的。CFSv2预测的准确性可能会受到生成过程中出现的初始大气环流条件的显著影响。根据Hess-Brezowsky分类,该研究确定了北极涛动(AO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)的哪些阶段以及哪些环流类型对气温和降水的月度和季节性预测有利/不利。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ACCURACY OF MONTHLY AND SEASONAL FORECASTS GENERATED FOR THE TERRITORY OF LITHUANIA USING NOAA’S CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2
The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
41
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management publishes original research about the environment with emphasis on sustainability.
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