2020年北爱尔兰COVID-19流行的数学模型

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2021-04-09 DOI:10.4236/OJMSI.2021.92006

P. Hall, G. Kiss, Tilmann E. Kuhn, S. Moutari, E. Patterson, Emily R. Smith

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究中，我们研究了2020年3月1日至2020年12月25日北爱尔兰COVID-19流行的动态，使用了易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)分区模型的几个副本，并将其与详细的公开数据集进行了比较。我们将数据分成10个时间间隔，并将连续间隔上的模型拟合为每个间隔上的累计确诊阳性病例数。利用拟合参数估计，我们还提供了再现数的估计。我们还讨论了所采用模型的局限性和可能的扩展。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Mathematical Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Northern Ireland in 2020

In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Ireland from 1st March 2020 up to 25th December 2020, using several copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model, and compare it to a detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number. We also discuss the limitations and possible extensions of the employed model.

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建模与仿真(英文)

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