{"title":"新冠肺炎疫情防控对中国流感疫情影响的时间序列研究","authors":"Zirui Guo, Li Zhang, Jue Liu, Min Liu","doi":"10.34133/2022/9830159","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><i>Background</i>. COVID-19 prevention and control measures might affect influenza epidemic in China since the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes contain transmission of both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus. We aimed to explore the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on influenza using data from the National Influenza Surveillance Network.<i>Methods</i>. The percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%) in southern and northern China from 2010 to 2022 was collected from the National Influenza Surveillance Network. Weekly ILI% observed value from 2010 to 2019 was used to calculate estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ILI% with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Time series analysis was applied to estimate weekly ILI% predicted values in 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 season. Impact index was used to explore the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control on influenza during nonpharmaceutical intervention and vaccination stages.<i>Results</i>. China influenza activity was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and different prevention and control measures during 2020-2022. In 2020/2021 season, weekly ILI% observed value in both southern and northern China was at a low epidemic level, and there was no obvious epidemic peak in winter and spring. In 2021/2022 season, weekly ILI% observed value in southern and northern China showed a small peak in summer and epidemic peak in winter and spring. The weekly ILI% observed value was generally lower than the predicted value in southern and northern China during 2020-2022. The median of impact index of weekly ILI% was 15.11% in north and 22.37% in south in 2020/2021 season and decreased significantly to 2.20% in north and 3.89% in south in 2021/2022 season.<i>Conclusion</i>. In summary, there was a significant decrease in reported ILI in China during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in winter and spring. Reduction of influenza virus infection might relate to everyday Chinese public health COVID-19 interventions. The confirmation of this relationship depends on future studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":73207,"journal":{"name":"Health data science","volume":" ","pages":"9830159"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10880177/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Impact of COVID-19 Prevention and Control on the Influenza Epidemic in China: A Time Series Study.\",\"authors\":\"Zirui Guo, Li Zhang, Jue Liu, Min Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.34133/2022/9830159\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p><i>Background</i>. COVID-19 prevention and control measures might affect influenza epidemic in China since the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes contain transmission of both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus. We aimed to explore the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on influenza using data from the National Influenza Surveillance Network.<i>Methods</i>. The percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%) in southern and northern China from 2010 to 2022 was collected from the National Influenza Surveillance Network. Weekly ILI% observed value from 2010 to 2019 was used to calculate estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ILI% with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Time series analysis was applied to estimate weekly ILI% predicted values in 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 season. Impact index was used to explore the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control on influenza during nonpharmaceutical intervention and vaccination stages.<i>Results</i>. China influenza activity was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and different prevention and control measures during 2020-2022. In 2020/2021 season, weekly ILI% observed value in both southern and northern China was at a low epidemic level, and there was no obvious epidemic peak in winter and spring. In 2021/2022 season, weekly ILI% observed value in southern and northern China showed a small peak in summer and epidemic peak in winter and spring. The weekly ILI% observed value was generally lower than the predicted value in southern and northern China during 2020-2022. The median of impact index of weekly ILI% was 15.11% in north and 22.37% in south in 2020/2021 season and decreased significantly to 2.20% in north and 3.89% in south in 2021/2022 season.<i>Conclusion</i>. In summary, there was a significant decrease in reported ILI in China during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in winter and spring. Reduction of influenza virus infection might relate to everyday Chinese public health COVID-19 interventions. The confirmation of this relationship depends on future studies.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":73207,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Health data science\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"9830159\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10880177/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Health data science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.34133/2022/9830159\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2022/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Health data science","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.34133/2022/9830159","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Impact of COVID-19 Prevention and Control on the Influenza Epidemic in China: A Time Series Study.
Background. COVID-19 prevention and control measures might affect influenza epidemic in China since the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes contain transmission of both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus. We aimed to explore the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on influenza using data from the National Influenza Surveillance Network.Methods. The percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%) in southern and northern China from 2010 to 2022 was collected from the National Influenza Surveillance Network. Weekly ILI% observed value from 2010 to 2019 was used to calculate estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ILI% with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Time series analysis was applied to estimate weekly ILI% predicted values in 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 season. Impact index was used to explore the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control on influenza during nonpharmaceutical intervention and vaccination stages.Results. China influenza activity was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and different prevention and control measures during 2020-2022. In 2020/2021 season, weekly ILI% observed value in both southern and northern China was at a low epidemic level, and there was no obvious epidemic peak in winter and spring. In 2021/2022 season, weekly ILI% observed value in southern and northern China showed a small peak in summer and epidemic peak in winter and spring. The weekly ILI% observed value was generally lower than the predicted value in southern and northern China during 2020-2022. The median of impact index of weekly ILI% was 15.11% in north and 22.37% in south in 2020/2021 season and decreased significantly to 2.20% in north and 3.89% in south in 2021/2022 season.Conclusion. In summary, there was a significant decrease in reported ILI in China during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in winter and spring. Reduction of influenza virus infection might relate to everyday Chinese public health COVID-19 interventions. The confirmation of this relationship depends on future studies.