新冠肺炎疫情早期美国俄亥俄州病例增长率的时空调查

Q4 Multidisciplinary

Ohio Journal of Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-02 DOI:10.18061/OJS.V121I2.8059

A. Selvitella, Liam Carolan, Justin Smethers, Christopher Hernandez, K. Foster

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引用次数: 0

摘要

了解流行病的初始增长率对流行病学家和政策制定者来说很重要，因为它会影响他们的缓解策略，如学校关闭、隔离或保持社交距离。由于传播率取决于易感人群与感染者的接触率，因此附近的地理区域可能会出现类似的增长率。这项研究确定了美国俄亥俄州2020年疫情早期与新冠肺炎相关的病例和死亡人数的增长率。病例和死亡的演变是通过具有线性和幂型确定性时间依赖性的Besag-York-Molliè模型建模的。分析表明，一旦考虑到第一例新冠肺炎病例出现的县间时间滞后，该模型的时间分量在病例和死亡中的增长率都是次指数的。此外，俄亥俄州东北部各县的死亡与附近各县的死亡率密切相关。

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A Spatio-Temporal Investigation of the Growth Rate of COVID-19 Incidents in Ohio, USA, Early in the Pandemic

Understanding the initial growth rate of an epidemic is important for epidemiologists and policy makers as it can impact their mitigation strategies such as school closures, quarantines, or social distancing. Because the transmission rate depends on the contact rate of the susceptible population with infected individuals, similar growth rates might be experienced in nearby geographical areas. This research determined the growth rate of cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 in the early period of the 2020 pandemic in Ohio, United States. The evolution of cases and deaths was modeled through a Besag-York-Molliè model with linear- and power-type deterministic time dependence. The analysis showed that the growth rate of the time component of the model was subexponential in both cases and deaths once the time-lag across counties of the appearance of the first COVID-19 case was considered. Moreover, deaths in the northeast counties in Ohio were strongly related to the deaths in nearby counties.

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来源期刊

Ohio Journal of Sciences Multidisciplinary-Multidisciplinary

CiteScore

0.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Published quarterly, plus the Annual Meeting Program Abstracts, The Ohio Journal of Science is the official publication of the Academy. The Journal publishes peer-reviewed, refereed papers contributing original knowledge to science, engineering, technology, education and their applications. The Journal is indexed and abstracted by many of the world"s leading indexing and abstracting services including State Academies of Science Abstracts which indexes the past 50 years of The Ohio Journal of Science.