The Specter of a “Revolutionary Situation”

Based on material from nationwide surveys conducted by the RAS Institute of Sociology in monitor mode, this article explores the probability that a “revolutionary situation”—an increase in mass protest actions by the “lower classes”—will take shape in present-day Russia. An analysis of the results of a survey conducted in the early spring of 2016 and a comparison of it with previous “waves” of surveys show that in the near term (the next year or two) a “revolutionary situation” will remain only a dangerous specter for Russia—mass protest actions will be merely a potential threat, not a living reality. This is based on the fact that in 2015 there was a moderate level of personal participation in various protest actions. In addition, protest actions today are primarily of an economic nature: People protest mostly against layoffs, price rises, and so on, rather than against the government. A paradox is evident: Many protest against the existing socioeconomic “rules of the game,” but their protest has not been consolidated; the protest against existing political institutions has “leaders” (the liberal opposition), but that protest is much less massive. At the same time, one should take note of a dangerous phenomenon regarding the high volatility of the characteristics of the protest activity: Russian citizens are capable, in response to “stimulative” events, of whipping around and changing their sociopolitical preferences.