集合人口模型中新冠肺炎疫苗接种的最佳控制：菲律宾的一例

IF 1.3 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-18 DOI:10.3389/fams.2023.1154634

Randy L. Caga-anan, Jead M. Macalisang, John Lemuel M. Dalisay, M. Raza, J. Martinez, J. P. Arcede

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了一个背景问题，即如何在一个不同地区都有自己疫苗接种能力的国家，在一段时间内分配有限的疫苗供应。考虑到每天的疫苗接种将影响未来的疾病进展，我们的目标是找到一种随着时间的推移可以将总感染和实施成本降至最低的分配策略。拉格朗日和欧拉迁移将我们的多补丁新冠肺炎模型连接起来，并添加疫苗接种作为控制措施。使用自适应前向-后向扫描方法，建立并求解了具有等周约束的最优控制问题。在50天内分发500万支疫苗的过程中，模拟表明，最佳控制策略可以在一个地区减少20万例感染。

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Optimal vaccination control for COVID-19 in a metapopulation model: a case of the Philippines

We investigate a contextual problem of how to distribute a limited supply of vaccines over a period of time in a country where different regions have its own vaccination capacities. Considering that daily vaccination will affect future disease progression, we aim to find a distribution strategy over time that can minimize the total infection and implementation costs. Lagrangian and Eulerian migrations connect our multi-patch COVID-19 model, and vaccination is added as a control measure. An optimal control problem with an isoperimetric constraint is formulated and solved using the Adapted Forward–Backward Sweep Method. In distributing 5 million vaccines in 50 days, simulations showed that the optimal control strategy could lead to a difference of reducing two hundred thousand infections in just one region.

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