建立一个更好的评估情报框架——通过系统的不确定性处理方法解决质量问题

IF 0.8 3区社会学 Q1 HISTORY

Intelligence and National Security Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI:10.1080/02684527.2023.2216963

B. G. M. Isaksen, K. McNaught

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Towards a better framework for estimative intelligence – addressing quality through a systematic approach to uncertainty handling

ABSTRACT The analytic standards governing the production of intelligence are outlined in a number of Intelligence Community Directives (ICDs). In this paper, we are concerned with ICDs 203, 206 and 208 and, in particular, how these relate to the handling of uncertainty in estimative intelligence. An inductive thematic analysis is employed which identifies several recurring themes. In addition, a conceptual map is developed which highlights relationships and the level of inter-connectedness between the standards. Requirements for improved operationalization of uncertainty handling are also discussed. The question of analytic feasibility is then examined in relation to the five themes extracted from the earlier analysis. The paper concludes that a new framework for uncertainty handling is required and suggests that such a framework should contain a process to assess analytic feasibility from the outset of a study.

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来源期刊

Intelligence and National Security Multiple-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

41.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Intelligence has never played a more prominent role in international politics than it does now in the early years of the twenty-first century. National intelligence services are larger than ever, and they are more transparent in their activities in the policy making of democratic nations. Intelligence and National Security is widely regarded as the world''s leading scholarly journal focused on the role of intelligence and secretive agencies in international relations. It examines this aspect of national security from a variety of perspectives and academic disciplines, with insightful articles research and written by leading experts based around the globe. Among the topics covered in the journal are: • the historical development of intelligence agencies • representations of intelligence in popular culture • public understandings and expectations related to intelligence • intelligence and ethics • intelligence collection and analysis • covert action and counterintelligence • privacy and intelligence accountability • the outsourcing of intelligence operations • the role of politics in intelligence activities • international intelligence cooperation and burden-sharing • the relationships among intelligence agencies, military organizations, and civilian policy departments. Authors for Intelligence and National Security come from a range of disciplines, including international affairs, history, sociology, political science, law, anthropology, philosophy, medicine, statistics, psychology, bio-sciences, and mathematics. These perspectives are regularly augmented by research submitted from current and former intelligence practitioners in several different nations. Each issue features a rich menu of articles about the uses (and occasional misuses) of intelligence, supplemented from time to time with special forums on current intelligence issues and interviews with leading intelligence officials.