考虑到风险模型估计的不确定性,预测因切尔诺贝利核电站事故而受到污染的布良斯克地区人群中甲状腺癌症的辐射风险

Q4 Medicine
A. Menyajlo, S. Chekin, M. Maksioutov, E. Kochergina, O. Vlasov, N. V. Shchukina, P.V. Kascheeva
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:预测甲状腺恶性肿瘤(MN)终生可归因的辐射风险,并根据保守的方法,确定目前(2023年初)生活在切尔诺贝利核电站事故后放射性核素污染最严重的六个地区的布良斯克地区人群的辐射风险增加组,考虑剂量不确定性因素和数学风险模型的参数。材料与方法:癌症甲状腺辐射风险的数学模型是国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的模型。辐射风险的不确定性评估是通过模拟建模进行的,即通过使用该风险计算中涉及的所有参数的正态或对数正态分布对风险的随机实现进行多次计算。基于一组随机实现,估计了95%的风险置信限。国家辐射和流行病学登记的统一联邦数据库(NRER)包含重建的人群甲状腺吸收剂量,用作计算的初始数据。结果:2023年初,37至40岁的女性群体的特征是甲状腺癌症的最大辐射风险。根据保守估计(根据辐射风险评估的95%置信上限),该群体中高达19.9%的人未来可能会经历辐射诱导的甲状腺癌症的发展,而对于37岁的女性来说,这一比例可能高达30.0%。据预测,居住在布良斯克地区克拉斯诺戈尔斯克区的人们面临的风险最大。辐射诱发的甲状腺癌症可在该组40.1%的个体中发展。男性患甲状腺癌症的辐射风险比女性低10倍。对于整个研究队列中74.5%的人群,预测将超过NRB-99/2009为电离辐射源正常工作下的人群制定的5.0×10-5的最大个体风险。结论:目前(自2023年以来以及终身),布良斯克地区污染最严重地区的人口仍然面临着患放射性甲状腺癌的高风险。暴露时(1986年)0-3岁的女性应被分配到最大风险组。这项工作的结果可用于卫生当局制定建议,以改进对暴露公民的医疗监测。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Forecast of Radiation Risks of Thyroid Cancer among the Population of Areas of the Bryansk Region Contaminated as a Result of the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, allowing for Uncertainties in Risk Model Estimates
Purpose: Forecasting the lifetime attributable radiation risk of incidence with malignant neoplasm (MN) of the thyroid gland and identifying groups of increased radiation risk (HR) for the population of the Bryansk region currently (at the beginning of 2023) living in six areas most contaminated with radionuclides after the accident at Chernobyl NPP, based on a conservative approach, taking into account dose uncertainty factors and parameters of mathematical risk models. Material and methods: The mathematical model of the radiation risk of thyroid cancer is the model recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The uncertainty assessment of radiation risks was carried out by simulation modeling, i.e. by multiple calculation of random realizations of the risk using the normal or log-normal distribution of all parameters involved in the calculation of this risk. Based on a set of random realizations, 95 % confidence limits of risks were estimated. The Unified Federal Database of the National Radiation and Epidemiological Register (NRER) containing reconstructed absorbed doses in the thyroid gland in the population was used as the initial data for the calculation. Results: At the beginning of 2023, the group of 37–40-year-old women is characterized by the maximum radiation risks of thyroid cancer. According to conservative estimates (according to the upper 95 % confidence limits of radiation risk assessments), up to 19.9 % of people from this group may experience the development of radiation-induced thyroid cancer in the future, and for 37-year-old women this proportion can be up to 30.0 %. The greatest risk is predicted for people living in the Krasnogorsk district of the Bryansk region. Radiation-induced thyroid cancer can develop in 40.1 % of individuals from this group. Radiation risks of thyroid cancer in men are up to 10 times lower than in women. For 74.5 % of the population of the entire studied cohort, it is predicted that the maximum individual risk of 5.0×10-5, established by NRB-99/2009 for the population under normal operation of ionizing radiation sources, will be exceeded. Conclusions: At present (since 2023 and for life), the population of the most polluted districts of the Bryansk region continues to be at a high risk of developing radiation-induced thyroid cancers. Women at the age of 0–3 years at the time of exposure (in 1986) should be allocated to the maximum risk group. The results of this work can be used in the preparation of recommendations by health authorities to improve medical monitoring of exposed citizens.
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来源期刊
Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety
Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety Medicine-Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging
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