{"title":"风险分析模型与农产品衍生品市场应用","authors":"João Batista Ferreira, L. Castro Júnior","doi":"10.14807/ijmp.v12i8.1499","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to build conceptual guidelines regarding price risk management through the agricultural derivatives market. Specifically, to identify the common price risk management methods and strategies employed, the risk analysis models of derivative markets, and the barriers to agricultural risk management. This is an integrative review, the search for literature on the models of risk management analysis of agricultural derivatives started by listing the largest possible number of keywords on the topic, in the Scopus and Web of Science. Forty-five publications were found meeting the pre-established criteria that served as the basis for this research. Based on the literature review, we list the main information on the subject and we also propose a theoretical model for analyzing the market risks of agricultural derivatives. Still, it was possible to notice that among the methodologies for measuring market risk, Value at Risk (VaR) stands out. We exemplify and demonstrate the existence of several statistical analyzes and mathematical models, as well as software available for the management of price risks. It is concluded that strategies with the futures and options market, even though they are the most efficient for risk management, lack incentives to become practical.","PeriodicalId":54124,"journal":{"name":"Independent Journal of Management & Production","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk analysis model and agricultural derivative market use\",\"authors\":\"João Batista Ferreira, L. Castro Júnior\",\"doi\":\"10.14807/ijmp.v12i8.1499\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This research aims to build conceptual guidelines regarding price risk management through the agricultural derivatives market. Specifically, to identify the common price risk management methods and strategies employed, the risk analysis models of derivative markets, and the barriers to agricultural risk management. This is an integrative review, the search for literature on the models of risk management analysis of agricultural derivatives started by listing the largest possible number of keywords on the topic, in the Scopus and Web of Science. Forty-five publications were found meeting the pre-established criteria that served as the basis for this research. Based on the literature review, we list the main information on the subject and we also propose a theoretical model for analyzing the market risks of agricultural derivatives. Still, it was possible to notice that among the methodologies for measuring market risk, Value at Risk (VaR) stands out. We exemplify and demonstrate the existence of several statistical analyzes and mathematical models, as well as software available for the management of price risks. It is concluded that strategies with the futures and options market, even though they are the most efficient for risk management, lack incentives to become practical.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54124,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Independent Journal of Management & Production\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Independent Journal of Management & Production\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.14807/ijmp.v12i8.1499\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Independent Journal of Management & Production","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.14807/ijmp.v12i8.1499","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究旨在通过农业衍生品市场建立有关价格风险管理的概念指南。具体而言,确定常用的价格风险管理方法和策略、衍生品市场的风险分析模型以及农业风险管理的障碍。这是一篇综合综述,旨在通过在Scopus和Web of Science上列出尽可能多的关键词来搜索农业衍生品风险管理分析模型的文献。45份出版物符合作为本研究基础的预先确定的标准。在文献综述的基础上,我们列出了该主题的主要信息,并提出了一个分析农业衍生品市场风险的理论模型。尽管如此,我们还是可以注意到,在衡量市场风险的方法中,风险价值(VaR)脱颖而出。我们举例说明并证明了几种统计分析和数学模型的存在,以及可用于管理价格风险的软件。结论是,期货和期权市场的策略,尽管它们是风险管理最有效的,但缺乏实用性的激励。
Risk analysis model and agricultural derivative market use
This research aims to build conceptual guidelines regarding price risk management through the agricultural derivatives market. Specifically, to identify the common price risk management methods and strategies employed, the risk analysis models of derivative markets, and the barriers to agricultural risk management. This is an integrative review, the search for literature on the models of risk management analysis of agricultural derivatives started by listing the largest possible number of keywords on the topic, in the Scopus and Web of Science. Forty-five publications were found meeting the pre-established criteria that served as the basis for this research. Based on the literature review, we list the main information on the subject and we also propose a theoretical model for analyzing the market risks of agricultural derivatives. Still, it was possible to notice that among the methodologies for measuring market risk, Value at Risk (VaR) stands out. We exemplify and demonstrate the existence of several statistical analyzes and mathematical models, as well as software available for the management of price risks. It is concluded that strategies with the futures and options market, even though they are the most efficient for risk management, lack incentives to become practical.