操纵选举和支持政权

IF 4.5 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
O. J. Reuter, David Szakonyi
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引用次数: 3

摘要

选举舞弊是稳定独裁统治还是破坏独裁统治?这个问题的答案部分取决于选民如何评价参与欺诈的政权候选人。作者在2016年俄罗斯大选后进行了一项调查实验,发现选民会撤回对选举舞弊的执政党候选人的支持。这种影响在该政权的坚定支持者中尤为明显。政权的核心支持者更有可能事先相信选举是自由和公平的。揭露欺诈行为的发生大大降低了他们支持该政权的倾向。作者的发现表明,欺诈对独裁者来说代价高昂,不仅因为它可能引发抗议,还因为它可能破坏政权的核心基础——选举支持。由于许多最坚定的支持者期望自由和公正的选举,该政权有强烈的动机隐瞒或以其他方式限制其使用选举欺诈。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Electoral Manipulation and Regime Support
ABSTRACT Does electoral fraud stabilize authoritarian rule or undermine it? The answer to this question rests in part on how voters evaluate regime candidates who engage in fraud. Using a survey experiment conducted after the 2016 elections in Russia, the authors find that voters withdraw their support from ruling party candidates who commit electoral fraud. This effect is especially large among strong supporters of the regime. Core regime supporters are more likely to have ex ante beliefs that elections are free and fair. Revealing that fraud has occurred significantly reduces their propensity to support the regime. The authors’ findings illustrate that fraud is costly for autocrats not just because it may ignite protest, but also because it can undermine the regime’s core base of electoral support. Because many of its strongest supporters expect free and fair elections, the regime has strong incentives to conceal or otherwise limit its use of electoral fraud.
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来源期刊
World Politics
World Politics Multiple-
CiteScore
8.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: World Politics, founded in 1948, is an internationally renowned quarterly journal of political science published in both print and online versions. Open to contributions by scholars, World Politics invites submission of research articles that make theoretical and empirical contributions to the literature, review articles, and research notes bearing on problems in international relations and comparative politics. The journal does not publish articles on current affairs, policy pieces, or narratives of a journalistic nature. Articles submitted for consideration are unsolicited, except for review articles, which are usually commissioned. Published for the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Affairs
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