从革命到制度:阿拉伯改革的经验

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Islam Abdelbary
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是概述2011年阿拉伯之春的原因,以及为什么阿拉伯国家在过去三十年中未能实现可持续性和包容性增长。设计/方法/方法本研究使用了由生产函数衍生的增强增长模型框架和动态面板LSDCV估计,其中包含了主成分分析生成的综合经济和政治改革指标。实证分析是对整个阿拉伯地区与海湾国家和新兴阿拉伯国家的比较评估。本研究基于1995年至2018年阿拉伯地区改革方案的几个面板数据模型。缺乏强有力的经济和制度改革是起义的主要原因。海湾国家的结构性改革力度不够,而且比宏观经济稳定更难解决。相比之下,阿拉伯新兴经济体在结构改革方面取得了很大进展,但在经济稳定方面进展较弱。至关重要的是,治理指标改革促进增长,根据每一组国家的类型,采用不同的治理项目。这项研究的结果证实,改革同时是政治,社会和经济。经济改革不应孤立于真空或脱离社会作出的政治和社会选择来看待。展望未来,阿拉伯改革议程必须解决阻碍改革政策有效性的关键治理问题。原创性/价值理论上,本研究使用统一的数学模型重新评估了治理在经济增长中的作用。在方法上,本研究使用计量经济学分析分析了阿拉伯地区的经济、社会和政治改革组成部分。在实证方面,本研究考察了区域社会经济改革方案。现有的研究未能认识到阿拉伯世界的经济和体制政策改革模式。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
From revolutions to institutions: the experience of Arab reform
Purpose The purpose of this study is to outline the reasons for the 2011 Arab Spring and why the Arab states failed to achieve sustainability and inclusive growth over the past three decades. Design/methodology/approach This study used the augmented growth model framework derived from a production function and a dynamic panel LSDCV estimation, which incorporates aggregated economic and political reform indicators generated by principal component analysis. The empirical analysis is a comparative assessment of the Arab region as a whole and the Gulf countries and emerging Arab countries. This study is based on several panel data models for the Arab region’s reform programmes from 1995 to 2018. Findings The absence of robust economic and institutional reforms was the main reason for the uprising. Structural reforms in Gulf countries have been insufficient and more difficult to address than macroeconomic stability. By contrast, Arab emerging economies have achieved strong progress in structural reform but with weak progress in economic stability. Critically, governance indicator reforms enhance growth, with different items of governance based on the type of each group of countries. The results of this study confirm that reform is simultaneously political, social and economical. Practical implications Economic reform should not be seen in a vacuum or in isolation from the political and social choices that society makes. Looking forward, the Arab reform agenda must address critical governance issues that hinder the effectiveness of reform policies. Originality/value Theoretically, this study reappraises governance’s role in economic growth using a unified mathematical model. Methodologically, this study analyses economic, social and political reform components in the Arab region using econometric analysis. Empirically, this study investigates regional socioeconomic reform programmes. Existing studies have failed to recognise the economic and institutional policy reform patterns in the Arab world.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management (IMEFM) publishes quality and in-depth analysis on current issues within Islamic and Middle Eastern finance and management. The journal welcomes strong evidence-based empirical studies and results-focused case studies that share research in product development and clarify best practices. The title is also keen to consider work from emerging authors. IMEFM has just also accepted into Clarivate''s SSCI in 2018, and its IF will be available in summer 2019, with citations dating from 2016. The coverage includes but is not limited to: -Islamic finance: Fundamentals, trends and opportunities in Islamic Finance, Islamic banking and financial markets, Risk management, Corporate finance, Investment strategy, Islamic social finance, Financial planning, Housing finance, Legal and regulatory issues, -Islamic management: Corporate governance, Customer relationship management and service quality, Business ethics and corporate social responsibility, Management styles and strategies in Shariah environments, Labour and welfare economics, Political economy. The journal is the only title aiming to give an interdisciplinary and holistic view on Islamic finance and business management practices in order to inform these two intertwined communities.
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