对痕量物质的交叉转移和推断相互作用概念的概率解释

IF 1.4 4区社会学 Q1 LAW

Law Probability & Risk Pub Date : 2020-12-30 DOI:10.1093/lpr/mgaa015

F. Taroni, P. Juchli, C. Aitken

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引用次数: 1

摘要

在涉及证据交叉转移的案件中，对推理相互作用的分析对法医评估人员的推理路线的描述起着重要作用。这两项证据在联合考虑时可能比单独考虑时对评估者更有意义。对于涉及交叉转移证据的案件，描述了一种评估证据的方法，特别注意需要考虑的因素。给出了一个公式，可用于定义在每个方向上转移的证据之间可能的相互作用，从而简化对此类证据的解释。给出了经典纤维证据场景下的数值算例。

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A probabilistic account of the concept of cross-transfer and inferential interactions for trace materials

The analysis of inferential interactions plays an important role in the description of the line of reasoning for a forensic evaluator in a case involving the cross-transfer of evidence. It is possible the two items of evidence may mean more to an evaluator when considered jointly than they do if considered separately. An approach to the evaluation of evidence, with particular attention to the factors that need to be considered, is described for a case involving the cross-transfer of evidence. A formula is given which may be used to define the possible interactions between the evidence transferred in each direction and hence ease the interpretation of such evidence. Numerical examples are given from a classical fibre evidence scenario.

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来源期刊

Law Probability & Risk MATHEMATICSSTATISTICS & PROBABILITY&-STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

28.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Law, Probability & Risk is a fully refereed journal which publishes papers dealing with topics on the interface of law and probabilistic reasoning. These are interpreted broadly to include aspects relevant to the interpretation of scientific evidence, the assessment of uncertainty and the assessment of risk. The readership includes academic lawyers, mathematicians, statisticians and social scientists with interests in quantitative reasoning. The primary objective of the journal is to cover issues in law, which have a scientific element, with an emphasis on statistical and probabilistic issues and the assessment of risk. Examples of topics which may be covered include communications law, computers and the law, environmental law, law and medicine, regulatory law for science and technology, identification problems (such as DNA but including other materials), sampling issues (drugs, computer pornography, fraud), offender profiling, credit scoring, risk assessment, the role of statistics and probability in drafting legislation, the assessment of competing theories of evidence (possibly with a view to forming an optimal combination of them). In addition, a whole new area is emerging in the application of computers to medicine and other safety-critical areas. New legislation is required to define the responsibility of computer experts who develop software for tackling these safety-critical problems.