中国人口老龄化城乡倒转的时空演化特征及驱动机制

Wei Zhang, Chunrong Pu, Fangping Li, Zilin Fan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

城乡倒转人口老龄化现象是中国全面建设小康社会面临的严峻问题。利用GIS空间聚类和多元逐步回归模型,分析了中国省域人口老龄化城乡倒转的时空演化特征及其驱动机制。结果表明:1)从时间序列演化来看,随着中国人口老龄化程度的不断提高,城乡倒转现象越来越明显;②从空间格局演变看,1995 - 2018年城乡空间集聚强度呈现“低-高-低”的倒u型变化趋势。它首先出现在东部沿海地区,然后逐渐扩展到中西部地区,最后演变成一种全国性的普遍现象。3)从驱动机制上看,人口老龄化与城乡倒挂现象背后存在着复杂的多维非线性交互作用机制。其中,人口和经济因素是造成这一现象的主要驱动因素。对于经济欠发达、人口外流严重、农村老龄化程度高的西部省份,农村“老贫”现象已成为实施乡村振兴、精准扶贫等战略的关键挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of urban-rural inversion of population aging in China
The phenomenon of urban-rural inversion population aging is a severe issue faced by China in building a well-off society in an all-round way. Using GIS spatial clustering and multiple stepwise regression models, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of urban-rural inversion of population aging in China on a provincial scale. The results show that: 1) In terms of time series evolution, with the continuous higher level of China’s population aging, the phenomenon of urban-rural inversion is becoming more and more obvious. 2) In terms of spatial pattern evolution, from 1995 to 2018, the spatial agglomeration intensity of urban-rural inversion showed an inverted U-shaped change trend of “low—high—low”. It first appeared in the Eastern coastal areas, then gradually expanded to the Central and Western regions, and finally evolved into a national common phenomenon. 3) In terms of driving mechanism, there is a complex multi-dimensional and nonlinear interaction mechanism behind the phenomenon of population aging and urban-rural inversion. Among them, population and economic factors are the main driving factors of this phenomenon. For the western provinces with underdeveloped economy, serious population outflow and high level of rural aging, the phenomenon of “old and poor” in rural areas has become a key challenge in the implementation of strategies such as rural revitalization and targeted poverty alleviation.
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