Why is Bangladesh’s electricity generation heading towards a GHG emissions-intensive future?

Abstract Bangladesh—recently graduated to developing nation category from a least developed country with an emerging economy also is one of the severely affected countries by climate change—is heading towards a coal-intensive electricity generation mix contrary to global decarbonisation efforts. It is facing formidable challenges in achieving universal access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable electricity, decarbonising the energy mix by 2030 to achieve the objective of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, despite a 285% increase of installed capacity between 2008–09 and 2020–21 and aiming at achieving 40 GW and 60 GW by 2030 and 2041 with planned expansions, respectively. This study reviewed Bangladesh’s electricity sector developments—demand, generation, transmission, and distribution (T&D)—to identify progress in policies, drivers, and challenges behind the Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-intensive future direction. The rapid population and economic growth and shift towards industry-based economy drove the exponential growth in energy demand, eventually influencing the rapid generation capacity and T&D infrastructure development. However, Bangladesh has targeted transitioning from natural gas to coal dominating fuel mix due to the lower renewable potential, energy, and food security challenges, because of the anticipated substantial future electricity demand for becoming an Upper Middle and a High-income country by 2031 and 2041, respectively. We also recommended nuclear energy, (renewable) electricity import and floating solar plants to decarbonise the current trajectory.