区域气候模式HadGEM3-RA对CORDEX-EA第2阶段区域温度和降水的评价

IF 0.3 Q4 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
J. Byon, Tae-Jun Kim, Jin-Uk Kim, Do-Hyun Kim
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引用次数: 0

摘要

:本研究评估了由英国气象局开发的哈德利中心全球环境模式第3版区域气候模式(HadGEM3-RA)模拟的东亚地区的温度和降水结果。HadGEM3-RA是在协调区域气候降尺度实验-东亚(CORDEX-EA)第二阶段进行的,历时15年(2000-2014)。夏季风产生的HadGEM3-RA雨带的空间分布与亚洲降水高分辨观测资料整合对东亚水资源评价(APRODITE)数据有较好的一致性。但是,东南亚地区的降水量被高估了,而朝鲜半岛的降水量被低估了。其中,韩国夏季降水与APRODITE数据的相关系数最小,均方根误差最大。东南亚地区冬季气温预报误差最大,而韩国春季气温预报误差最大。为了评价局地可预见性,与首尔气象站ASOS资料对比的气温和降水时间序列与空间平均验证结果相似,夏季降水和冬季气温低估。特别是随着夏季降水量的增加,降水的低估程度增加。冬季气温在低温时倾向于低估,而在高温时则倾向于高估。极端气候指数对比结果表明,热浪高估,暴雨低估。以25 km水平分辨率模拟的HadGEM3-RA在中尺度对流系统和地形降水预报方面存在局限性。研究表明,提高初始资料、水平分辨率和物理过程是提高区域气候模式可预测性的必要条件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation over CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Domain using Regional Climate Model HadGEM3-RA
: This study evaluates the temperature and precipitation results in East Asia simulated from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) developed by the UK Met Office. The HadGEM3-RA is conducted in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase II domain for 15 year (2000-2014). The spatial distribution of rainbands produced from the HadGEM3-RA by the summer monsoon is in good agreement with the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APRODITE) data over the East Asia. But, precipitation amount is overestimated in Southeast Asia and underestimated over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the simulated summer rainfall and APRODITE data show the least correlation coefficient and the maximum value of root mean square error in South Korea. Prediction of temperature in Southeast Asia shows underestimation with a maximum error during winter season, while it appears the largest underestimation in South Korea during spring season. In order to evaluate local predictability, the time series of temperature and precipitation compared to the ASOS data of the Seoul Meteorological Station is similar to the spatial average verification results in which the summer precipitation and winter temperature underestimate. Especially, the underestimation of the rainfall increases when the amounts of precipitation increase in summer. The winter temperature tends to underestimate at low temperature, while it overestimates at high temperature. The results of the extreme climate index comparison show that heat wave is overestimated and heavy rainfall is underestimated. The HadGEM3-RA simulated with a horizontal resolution of 25 km shows limitations in the prediction of mesoscale convective system and topographic precipitation. This study indicates that improvement of initial data, horizontal resolution, and physical process are necessary to improve predictability of regional climate model.
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来源期刊
Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society
Journal of the Korean Earth Science Society GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
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50.00%
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46
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