基于分析模型的新冠肺炎疫情在纽约市传播的计算

F. Mairanowski, D. Below
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引用次数: 1

摘要

详细描述了在封锁和大规模接种疫苗的情况下计算流行病传播的模型(ASILV模型)。所提出的分析模型充分描述了纽约市疫情的发展情况。使用所提出的模型对感染者总数和七天发病率的估计与流行病增长所有阶段的观测数据密切相关。通过对不同疫苗接种率下流行病传播的模型计算,可以评估疫苗接种对流行病增长的影响。对不同疫苗接种强度下的七天发病率曲线的分析得出了初步结论,即在疫苗接种率高于最低值的情况下,新毒株的出现不会导致流行病的加剧。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Calculations of the Spread of the COVID 19 epidemic in New York City based on the Analytical Model
A detailed description of the model for calculating epidemic spread under conditions of lockdown and mass vaccination of the population is given (ASILV model). The proposed analytical model adequately describes the development of the epidemic in New York City. The estimates of the total number of infected persons and the seven-day incident rate made using the proposed model correlate well with the observed data in all the stages of epidemic growth. Model calculations of the spread of the epidemic under different vaccination rates allowed an assessment of the effect of vaccination on the growth of the epidemic. Analysis of seven-day incidence curves at different vaccination intensities led to the preliminary conclusion that at vaccination rates above a minimum value, the emergence of new strains did not lead to a growing epidemic.
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