阿蒙森海海湾冰盖质量损失预测到2050年校准使用观测速度和海拔变化

IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
S. Bevan, S. Cornford, Lin Gilbert, Inès N. Otosaka, Daniel F. Martin, Trystan Surawy-Stepney
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引用次数: 1

摘要

南极西部冰原阿蒙森海隆起造成的物质损失是全球海平面上升(SLR)的主要原因,并且在近几十年来一直在增加。对未来单反的预测越来越多地使用模拟集合进行建模,其中模式参数和外部强迫在可信范围内变化。准确报告与这些预测相关的不确定性,对于有效规划海平面上升并建立防御措施至关重要。根据目前对冰盖行为的观测校准模式模拟,可以减少不确定性。在这里,我们使用表面高程和冰速的遥感观测,校准了来自阿蒙森海海湾的冰损失的BISICLES冰盖模型模拟集合。结果表明,每种校准类型都能够将SLR预测贡献的90%可信范围分别降低34%和43%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change
Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively.
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来源期刊
Journal of Glaciology
Journal of Glaciology 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
14.70%
发文量
101
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Glaciology publishes original scientific articles and letters in any aspect of glaciology- the study of ice. Studies of natural, artificial, and extraterrestrial ice and snow, as well as interactions between ice, snow and the atmospheric, oceanic and subglacial environment are all eligible. They may be based on field work, remote sensing, laboratory investigations, theoretical analysis or numerical modelling, or may report on newly developed glaciological instruments. Subjects covered recently in the Journal have included palaeoclimatology and the chemistry of the atmosphere as revealed in ice cores; theoretical and applied physics and chemistry of ice; the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in their extent and mass under climatic forcing; glacier energy balances at all scales; glacial landforms, and glaciers as geomorphic agents; snow science in all its aspects; ice as a host for surface and subglacial ecosystems; sea ice, icebergs and lake ice; and avalanche dynamics and other glacial hazards to human activity. Studies of permafrost and of ice in the Earth’s atmosphere are also within the domain of the Journal, as are interdisciplinary applications to engineering, biological, and social sciences, and studies in the history of glaciology.
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