{"title":"按年龄分列的生育率概率预测和预测（1895-2040年）","authors":"Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"11 1","pages":"79-104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2017-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Proyecciones y retroproyecciones probabilísticas de las tasas de fecundidad por edad (1895-2040)\",\"authors\":\"Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi\",\"doi\":\"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.\",\"PeriodicalId\":30944,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion\",\"volume\":\"11 1\",\"pages\":\"79-104\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-12-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"DEMOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"DEMOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Proyecciones y retroproyecciones probabilísticas de las tasas de fecundidad por edad (1895-2040)
The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.
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