Using @RISK to Determine Potential Economic Losses to Jujube Production in China Resulting from Damage by Carposina sasakii (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae)

Abstract Carposina sasakii Matsumura (Lepidoptera: Carposinidae) is a serious fruit-boring pest in eastern Asia. In China, it is one of the most harmful and common pests in deciduous fruit trees, causing an annual loss of more than a billion yuan. However, economic losses to the jujube industry as a result of C. sasakii damage remain undefined. In this study, we collected related data on C. sasakii, the market price of jujube, and costs of its prevention and management. The potential economic losses of China's jujube industry caused by C. sasakii were predicted using @RISK (Palisade, Raleigh, NC) software and a stochastic simulation method, which is the universal model of potential economic loss assessment for economically important fruit flies. Our results showed that the total economic losses potentially caused by C. sasakii to China's jujube industry are approximately 8,643.41–350,524.15 million RMB (RMB is the legal tender in China; approximately 1,338.00–54,261.14 million USD) if the pest was not managed and approximately 2,487.15–123,242.12 million RMB (about 385.01–19, 077.88 million USD) when management was applied. Therefore, a loss of approximately 841.83–244,144.06 million RMB (approximately 130.32–37,793.50 million USD) can be logically retrieved after controlling this pest. As a result, we suggest that related organizations and pest management practitioners strengthen prevention and control measures of C. sasakii to reduce the risk of economic loss by decreasing the infestation level of C. sasakii in jujube production and, thus, economic losses after infestation.