南北战争前美国铁路基础设施投资与经济发展

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of economic development Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI:10.35866/CAUJED.2017.42.3.001

R. Pereira, W. Hausman, A. Pereira

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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们使用向量自回归方法来衡量美国南北战争前铁路投资对经济发展的总体影响。我们的结果可以总结如下。首先，我们发现铁路基础设施投资与GDP之间存在双向因果关系。其次，我们估计铁路投资的边际收益为4.2美元，考虑到铁路资本的10年使用寿命，这相当于15.5%的回报率。虽然这种影响中约有三分之二来自供应方面，但短期需求方面的影响也很大。第三，考虑到19世纪30年代实行的低有效税率和我们估计的铁路投资的影响程度，这些投资很可能不是自筹资金的，因此可能导致了这一时期的高公共债务水平。

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Railroad Infrastructure Investments and Economic Development in the Antebellum United States

We measure the overall impact of railroad investment on economic development in the antebellum period in the United States using a vector autoregressive approach. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we find bidirectional causality between railroad infrastructure investment and GDP. Second, we estimate a marginal product of $4.2 for railroad investment which corresponds to a 15.5% rate of return when considering a 10-year lifetime for railroad capital. While about two-thirds of this effect stems from the supply side, short run demand side effects also are substantial. Third, given the low effective tax rates practiced in the 1830s and the magnitude of the effects of railroad investment we estimate, it is very likely that these investments were not self-financing and may, therefore, have contributed to the high levels of public indebtedness observed in the period.

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来源期刊

Journal of economic development Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics and Econometrics

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Development (JED) promotes and encourages research that aim at economic development and growth by publishing papers of great scholarly merit on a wide range of topics and employing a wide range of approaches. JED welcomes both theoretical and empirical papers in the fields of economic development, economic growth, international trade and finance, labor economics, IO, social choice and political economics. JED also invites the economic analysis on the experiences of economic development in various dimensions from all the countries of the globe.