Governing through Anticipatory Norms: How UNIDIR Constructs Knowledge about Autonomous Weapons Systems

ABSTRACT The need for normative change is rarely self-evident but requires the sustained efforts of actors to create a demand for action. With emerging technologies such as autonomous weapons systems (AWS), the challenge is even greater given the early stages of development and use of these systems. This places unusual demands on actors to present evidence for the nature, scale and severity of a problem. Suggesting that the epistemic bases of norm-building are poorly understood, the article introduces a practice-theoretical approach to cast light on how international organisations cope with the uncertainty surrounding AWS. The key claim is that the emergence of anticipatory norms depends upon forward-looking epistemic practices that produce knowledge about future governance objects and create a demand for preventive action. Analysing the role of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), I argue that attempts to de-science-fictionalise the issue rather than futuristic scenarios may proof integral to propel the emergence of anticipatory norms.