诊断阴影下阿尔及利亚新冠肺炎疫情的建模与回顾分析

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2021-06-13 DOI:10.1101/2021.06.09.21258668

J. Jia, S. Liu, Y. Liu, R. Shan, K. Zennir, R. Zhang

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引用次数: 1

摘要

在本文中，我们建立了一个特殊的流行病动态模型来描述新冠肺炎在阿尔及利亚的传播。我们推导了阈值参数控制繁殖数（R0c），并提出了有效控制繁殖率（Rc（t））作为评估不同控制策略下流行病的实时指标。由于报告数据的局限性，我们重新定义了具有诊断阴影的累计确诊病例数，然后使用处理后的数据进行最优数值模拟。根据控制措施，我们将整个研究阶段分为六个阶段。然后给出了相应的医疗资源估计和每个阶段的平均有效控制繁殖数。同时，我们使用从最优数值模拟中获得的参数值来预测不同控制策略下的整个疫情趋势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Modeling and reviewing analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in Algeria with diagnostic shadow

In this paper, we formulate a special epidemic dynamic model to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in Algeria. We derive the threshold parameter control reproduction number (R0c ), and present the effective control reproduction number (Rc(t)) as a real-time index for evaluating the epidemic under different control strategies. Due to the limitation of the reported data, we redefine the number of accumulative confirmed cases with diagnostic shadow and then use the processed data to do the optimal numerical simulations. According to the control measures, we divide the whole research period into six stages. And then the corresponding medical resource estimations and the average effective control reproduction numbers for each stage are given. Meanwhile, we use the parameter values which are obtained from the optimal numerical simulations to forecast the whole epidemic tendency under different control strategies.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.