Potential changes in air quality in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region under the RCP8.5 scenario using CCSM4/WRF-CMAQ dynamic downscaling estimation

Q2 Environmental Science

环境科学研究 Pub Date : 2017-11-25 DOI:10.13198/J.ISSN.1001-6929.2017.03.12

王堃, 师华定, 高佳佳, 王晨龙, 滑申冰, 高庆先

引用次数: 0

摘要

At present, there is relatively little research on the impact of climate change on regional air quality, and statistical downscaling methods are often used to process global climate model results. The WRF mesoscale meteorological model is used to dynamically downscale the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario estimation results of the CCSM4 climate model, and to provide a meteorological field for the CMAQ air quality model; Based on the 2012 Tsinghua University MEIC atmospheric pollutant emission inventory, 2005 was selected as the representative year for climate status and 2049-2051 as the future climate representative year. The meteorological and air quality numerical simulation results of typical months (January, April, July, and October) in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region were compared to estimate the potential changes in air quality in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region under the background of climate change. The results showed that under the unchanged emission situation and the RCP8.5 scenario, Compared with the current representative year, the average annual meteorological factors in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, represented by typical months, show an overall trend of temperature increase, while wind speed, relative humidity, and atmospheric boundary layer height all decrease; The annual average concentration of atmospheric pollutants shows an overall upward trend, with temperatures increasing by about 0.8 ℃, wind speeds decreasing by about 0.11 m/s, relative humidity decreasing by about 2%, and atmospheric boundary layer height decreasing by about 8 m, ρ (PM2.5) increase by approximately 2.4 μ G/m3, ρ (SO2) increases by approximately 1.8 μ G/m3, ρ (NOx) increases by approximately 1.0 μ G/m3; In addition, among the main meteorological conditions (temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, atmospheric boundary layer height), the decrease in wind speed and atmospheric boundary layer height may be the main meteorological factors causing changes in the concentration of these atmospheric pollutants, and the decrease in wind speed and atmospheric boundary layer height is related to ρ The correlation coefficients of (PM2.5) reduction are approximately -0.44 and -0.26, respectively. Studies have shown that climate change poses a potential risk of increasing pollutant concentrations in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. At the same time, due to the lack of future emission scenario data for air quality models and the increasing improvement of online coupling models, deeper research is urgently needed in the field of climate air quality research in China

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CCSM4/WRF-CMAQ动力降尺度预估RCP8.5情景下京津冀地区空气质量的潜在变化

目前，针对气候变化对区域空气质量影响的研究相对较少，并且多采用统计降尺度方法对全球气候模式结果进行处理.采用WRF中尺度气象模式对CCSM4气候模式的CMIP5 RCP8.5情景预估结果进行动力降尺度处理，并为CMAQ空气质量模式提供气象场；在2012年清华大学MEIC大气污染物排放清单的基础上，选取2005年作为气候现状代表年、2049-2051年作为未来气候代表年，对京津冀地区典型月份（1月、4月、7月、10月）的气象及空气质量数值模拟结果进行对比，以此预估气候变化背景下京津冀地区空气质量潜在变化.结果表明，在排放情况不变及RCP8.5情景下，未来代表年与现状代表年相比，京津冀地区以典型月份为代表的年均气象因素整体呈现温度升高，风速、相对湿度及大气边界层高度均降低的趋势；年均大气污染物浓度整体呈现升高的趋势，其中，温度升高约0.8℃，风速降低约0.11 m/s，相对湿度降低约2%，大气边界层高度降低约8 m，ρ（PM2.5）升高约2.4 μg/m3，ρ（SO2）升高约1.8 μg/m3，ρ（NOx）升高约1.0 μg/m3；此外，主要的气象条件（温度、风速、相对湿度、大气边界层高度）中，风速及大气边界层高度的降低可能是造成这些大气污染物浓度变化的主要气象因素，并且风速及大气边界层高度的降低与ρ（PM2.5）降低的相关系数分别约为-0.44和-0.26.研究显示，气候变化会对京津冀地区造成污染物浓度升高的潜在风险，同时由于现阶段缺乏可用于空气质量模式的未来排放情景数据、在线耦合模式日臻完善，在我国气候-空气质量的研究领域亟待进行更深层次的研究.

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来源期刊

环境科学研究 Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

6496

期刊介绍：