疟疾建模的一些数学工具:一项主观调查

Q2 Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Biomath Pub Date : 2021-10-13 DOI:10.11145/j.biomath.2021.10.029

J. Banasiak, R. Ouifki, W. A. Woldegerima

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引用次数: 1

摘要

在本文中，我们简要介绍了疟疾的数学模型，以及如何使用它来理解疾病的传播和发展，以及如何设计控制策略，以支持公共卫生干预和决策。我们讨论了过去和现在对疟疾数学建模的一些贡献，包括最近对传播阻断药物建模的发展。我们还评论了疟疾动态的复杂性，特别是其多尺度特征及其挑战和机遇。我们通过对南非2001-2018年疟疾数据使用95%置信区间的曲线拟合来说明讨论，并提供了到2025年疟疾病例和死亡人数的预测。

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Some mathematical tools for modelling malaria: a subjective survey

In this paper, we provide a brief survey of mathematical modelling of malaria and how it is used to understand the transmission and progression of the disease and design strategies for its control to support public health interventions and decision-making. We discuss some of the past and present contributions of mathematical modelling of malaria, including the recent development of modelling the transmission-blocking drugs. We also comment on the complexity of the malaria dynamics and, in particular, on its multiscale character with its challenges and opportunities. We illustrate the discussion by presenting a curve fitting using a 95% confidence interval for the South African data for malaria from the years 2001-2018$ and provide projections for the number of malaria cases and deaths up to the year 2025.

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来源期刊

Biomath Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

20 weeks