包裹及快递服务的需求模型及未来发展预测

IF 1.4 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research Pub Date : 2023-06-21 DOI:10.24818/18423264/57.2.23.16

Cacic Natasa, Jovanović Bojan, Sarac Dragana, Trubint Nikola, Dudak Ljubica, Blagojevic Mladenka

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引用次数: 0

摘要

。电子商务的增长对快递和包裹服务需求的增长做出了重大贡献。本文的目的是建立一种价格弹性方法，并预测快递和包裹服务的需求。从这个意义上讲，为了描述包裹和快递服务的需求动态，使用了Lotka-Volterra方法和Holt-Winters方法。然后，通过一项调查，调查了用户对快递和包裹服务的偏好。基于所得结果，建立了这些服务需求的价格弹性模拟模型。开发的需求价格弹性模型使我们能够注意到公共邮政运营商增加收入的潜力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Demand Modelling and Forecasting the Future Development of Parcel and Express Services

. The growth of e-commerce has significantly contributed to the increase in demand for express and parcel services. The aim of this paper is to create a price elasticity methodology and forecasting demand for express and parcel services. In that sense, to describe the dynamics of demand for parcel and express services, the Lotka-Volterra method and the Holt-Winters method were used. Then, users’ preferences in the express and parcel services were investigated through a survey. Based on the results obtained, a simulation model for the price elasticity of the demand for these services was developed. The developed model of the price elasticity of demand enabled us to notice the potential to increase the revenue of the Public Postal Operator.

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来源期刊

Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

22.20%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： ECECSR is a refereed journal dedicated to publication of original articles in the fields of economic mathematical modeling, operations research, microeconomics, macroeconomics, mathematical programming, statistical analysis, game theory, artificial intelligence, and other topics from theoretical development to research on applied economic problems. Published by the Academy of Economic Studies in Bucharest, it is the leading journal in the field of economic modeling from Romania.