New trends in potential migration from Albania: the migration transition postponed?

ABSTRACT Since the end of communist rule in 1991, Albania has seen, proportionately, one of the largest outflows of its people of any country in the world – an emigrant stock in 2013 equivalent to 44% of its resident population. This article addresses two issues related to the future trend of Albanian migration. First, a migration module of 23 questions designed by the authors and attached to the 2018 round of the European Values Survey asked about future migration intentions. These were found to be high and increasing: 52% of 18 to 40-year-olds expressed their intention to migrate compared to 44% in a comparable survey in 2006/7. The top two desired destination countries have switched from Italy and Greece in the past to Germany and the USA in the latest survey, which also shows potential migration higher amongst the more-skilled and educated population compared to past trends. A subsample of returned migrants captured by the survey shows even higher intentions to migrate – 71%. Second, Albania’s anticipated migration transition, from a country of emigration to one of net immigration, is deferred if migration intentions correlate with migration outcomes, with obvious reflections on the country’s overall development trajectory.