更好理解解锁的反应扩散系统：带扩散的SEIR型模型在法国新冠肺炎空间传播中的应用

Q2 Mathematics

Computational and Mathematical Biophysics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1515/cmb-2020-0104

Y. Mammeri

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引用次数: 31

摘要

我们想知道，仅考虑易感、暴露和无症状个体的平均每日运动量的反应-扩散模型是否足以描述COVID-19病毒的传播。该模型使用来自法国的确诊感染和死亡数据及其初始空间分布进行校准。首先对偏微分方程组进行了研究，然后推导出了偏微分方程组的基本再现数𝒭0。其次，基于水平集和有限差分相结合的数值模拟显示了3月16日至6月16日COVID-19的空间传播。最后，根据距离的变化，或部分空间封锁，比较了解除封锁的情景。

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A reaction-diffusion system to better comprehend the unlockdown: Application of SEIR-type model with diffusion to the spatial spread of COVID-19 in France

Abstract We wondered that if a reaction-diffusion model considering only the mean daily movement of susceptible, exposed and asymptomatic individuals was enough to describe the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The model was calibrated using data on the confirmed infection and death from France as well as their initial spatial distribution. First, the system of partial differential equations is studied, then the basic reproduction number, 𝒭0 is derived. Second, numerical simulations, based on a combination of level-set and finite differences, shown the spatial spread of COVID-19 from March 16 to June 16. Finally, scenarios of unlockdown are compared according to variation of distancing, or partially spatial lockdown.

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来源期刊

Computational and Mathematical Biophysics Mathematics-Mathematical Physics

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

30 weeks