Article: ‘VAT Gap’ Estimation: Distinguishing Between Informality and Fraud

The value added tax (VAT) remains a primary source of budget revenues across Europe. Consequently, compliance with it became critical for the fiscal security of Member States. Consequently, the issue of VAT compliance received EU level attention, and quantitative indicators – known as ‘VAT gaps’ – were produced for particular countries and the entire EU. Unfortunately, the most common top-down approach to the ‘VAT gap’ calculation delivers only the aggregate estimate of noncompliance. However, designing effective policy interventions requires a more detailed diagnosis as countering organized crime VAT fraud schemes requires different strategies than the shadow economy. This article proposes a simple approach to the top-down ‘VAT gap’ estimation that would enable distinguishing between the two categories by building upon the minimal set of data available to the tax authorities. An analysis of the Polish ‘VAT gap’ experience confirms the validity of proposed method, facilitating its application in a study encompassing multiple countries. ‘VAT gap’, top-down methodology, shadow economy, VAT fraud, carousel fraud