高峰与低谷:1914-1926年,瑞典的银行在通货膨胀和通货紧缩中倒闭

IF 1.2 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS
S. Kenny, Anders Ögren, Liang Zhao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文回顾了瑞典银行业危机(1919-1926),这场危机以战后通缩取代战时通胀(1914-1918)而具体化。受费雪“债务通缩理论”的启发,我们采用生存分析来“预测”哪些银行会倒闭,并给出某些事前银行特征。我们的实验支持这个理论;在价格不断下跌的情况下,期限结构最重要,脆弱的短期客户贷款和银行负债是危机中银行陷入困境的最一贯原因。同样,(1)杠杆的强劲增长,(2)抵押贷款的疲软,以及(3)繁荣时期的外国借款都与银行倒闭有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The highs and the lows: bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914–1926
This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919–1926) that materialized as post-war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914–1918). Inspired by Fisher’s “debt deflation theory,” we employ survival analysis to “predict” which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in (1) leverage, (2) weaker collateral loans, and (3) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
7.10%
发文量
15
期刊介绍: European Review of Economic History has established itself as a major outlet for high-quality research in economic history, which is accessible to readers from a variety of different backgrounds. The Review publishes articles on a wide range of topics in European, comparative and world economic history. Contributions shed new light on existing debates, raise new or previously neglected topics and provide fresh perspectives from comparative research. The Review includes full-length articles, shorter articles, notes and comments, debates, survey articles, and review articles. It also publishes notes and announcements from the European Historical Economics Society.
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