安倍之后的俄日关系:新的压力测试?

IF 0.1 Q4 AREA STUDIES
D. Streltsov
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引用次数: 3

摘要

文章论述了2020年安倍辞去首相职务后,由于国际环境的变化和两国国内政治的发展,俄日关系发生的质变。在导致双边关系恶化的国际因素中,作者特别提到了2021年华盛顿政权更迭后克里姆林宫与美国的对抗,以及2022年乌克兰周边局势的新恶化。俄罗斯继续在亚洲形成新的地缘政治坐标体系,在这个体系中,只有中国可以被俄罗斯视为真正的盟友,而日本以及俄罗斯与美国有联系的许多亚洲伙伴发现自己处于对立阵营,这也发挥了作用。本文主要论述了俄国在对日和约问题上立场的变化。采取这一行动是为了向日本证明,它在与俄罗斯划界问题上的立场是徒劳的。日本在俄罗斯内部意识形态和宣传话语中的地位和作用也发生了转变,其中对东亚国家的“日本军国主义罪行”的关注日益明显。同时,作者认为莫斯科对日本的批评态度不是一场有意识的专门针对日本的意识形态运动的结果,而是反映了俄罗斯社会政治生活中的一般气氛。作者认为,在远东边界上面对日本,获得一个新的“不友好”国家将成为俄罗斯的军事和政治风险因素,并将不可避免地损害其安全。与此同时,考虑到与日本建立牢固的伙伴关系在地缘战略上的重要性,俄罗斯应该重新考虑自己的立场。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Russian-Japanese relations after Abe: A new stress test?
The article addresses qualitative changes in Russian-Japanese relations that occurred after the resignation of Shinzō Abe from the position of Prime Minister in 2020 due to the transformation of the international environment and domestic political developments in both countries. Among the international factors contributing to the deterioration of bilateral relations, the author particularly mentions confrontation between the Kremlin and the U.S after the change of administration in Washington in 2021, as well as a new aggravation of the situation around Ukraine in 2022. Continuing formation of a new system of geopolitical coordinates in Asia, in which only China can be considered by Russia an actual ally, while Japan, along with many of Russia’s Asian partners linked to the U.S., found themselves in the opposing camp, also played a role.The author focuses on the change in the Russian position on the issue of the peace treaty with Japan. The course was taken to demonstrate to Japan the futility of its stance on the issue of border demarcation with Russia. There has also been a transformation of the place and role of Japan in the internal ideological and propaganda discourse of Russia, where the focus on the «crimes of Japanese militarism» in East Asian countries is becoming increasingly evident. At the same time, the author considers Moscow’s critical attitude towards Japan not the result of a conscious ideological campaign directed specifically against Japan, but rather a reflection of the general atmosphere in the socio-political life of Russia.The author believes that the acquisition of a new «unfriendly» state in the face of Japan on the Far Eastern borders will become a military and political risk factor for Russia and will inevitably damage its security. Meanwhile, Russia should rethink its position given that, geostrategically, it is important for it to have strong partnership relations with Japan.
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