Predicting the Effect of Countermeasures for Crop-Raiding Japanese Macaques Using the Conditions of Human Settlements

Abstract. For macaque management, it is recommended that residents use countermeasures, such as psychological attacks using fireworks and other to drive macaques away from farmland. However, these require settlement-wide cooperation and continuous implementation. I surveyed residents within settlements and aimed to clarify the conditions under which countermeasures were successful. I hypothesized that the effectiveness of countermeasures can be explained by the situation within the macaque-damaged settlements. A questionnaire survey such as the situation of the settlement, crop damage, and the state of macaque management was conducted in 2017 in each settlement of six municipalities in Niigata Prefecture. A gradient boosting model was used to predict the effects of psychological attacks and electric fences on multiple conditions. Of the 219 survey results, 193 settlements were affected by Japanese macaques. Several variables including the number of cooperative entities within the municipality, the number of settlement maintenance activities, and the degree of damage contributed to the effect of psychological attacks. Only the number of cooperative entities within the municipality contributed to the effect of the electric fence. The feasibility of implementing each of these countermeasures for macaque control could be predicted by assessing the situation in each settlement.