基于信息的海上结构物风险与疲劳管理价值

IF 3 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
A. Agusta, B. Leira, S. Thöns
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引用次数: 6

摘要

摘要本文利用信息与行动价值(VoIA)分析,提出了一个海上结构物结构完整性和风险管理(SIRM)规划框架。多个结构健康信息源,即检查、结构健康监测(SHM)和损伤检测系统(DDS),根据信息获取状态进行建模。在概率建模中,区分信息是预测的还是已经获得的。阐述了两种退化结构系统建模方法,并建立了结构系统性能的前后更新公式。为了提高复杂结构系统分析的效率,推导了一种用于载荷建模的响应面方法,并对响应面的模型不确定性进行了显式建模。将公式化的方法应用于一个通用结构系统和一个典型的深水导管架平台,分析了四种SIRM场景。通过最大化VoIA来确定最优SIRM策略。结果表明,与没有SIRM的情况相比,SIRM的实施可以降低故障风险和整个使用寿命内的预期总成本。还观察到,来自SHM和DDS的信息可以减少未来的检查工作,并提高SIRM的价值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Value of information-based risk and fatigue management for offshore structures
ABSTRACT This paper proposes a framework for the planning of the structural integrity and risk management (SIRM) of offshore structures by utilizing the value of information and action (VoIA) analysis. Multiple structural health information sources, i.e. inspections, structural health monitoring (SHM) and damage detection systems (DDS), are modeled in dependency of the information acquirement state. In the probabilistic modeling, it is distinguished whether the information are predicted or already obtained. Two deteriorating structural system modeling approaches are illustrated and the pre-posterior and posterior updating of the structural system performance is formulated. To enhance the efficiency of the analysis of complex structural systems, a response surface method for load modeling is derived and the model uncertainty of the response surface is explicitly modeled. The formulated approaches are applied to a generic structural system and a typical deepwater jacket platform analyzing four SIRM scenarios. The optimal SIRM strategy is identified by maximizing the VoIA. The results show that the implementation of SIRM can reduce the failure risks and the expected total costs over the service life compared to a scenario without SIRM. It is also observed that information from SHM and DDS can reduce future inspection efforts and enhance the value of SIRM.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
9.50%
发文量
24
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