墨西哥东南偏南地区的历史降水模式和未来预测

IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
M. Andrade-Velázquez, Ojilve Ramón Medrano Pérez
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引用次数: 6

摘要

Andrade-Velazquez, M, & Medrano-Perez, R.(2021)。墨西哥东南偏南地区的历史降水模式和未来预测。地球科学研究,25(1),69-84。DOI: https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj。本研究分析了气候变化情景及其对墨西哥东南偏南地区(SSR)水资源有效性的潜在影响。利用标准化降水指数对1960-2016年、2015-2039年(近未来)和2075-2099年(远未来)3种排放情景(代表性浓度路径(RCP) 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5)的降水模式进行了分析。SSR降水的历史变化表明存在由El Niño-Southern涛动、太平洋年代际涛动和大西洋多年代际涛动驱动的干湿事件,它们是区域气候调节器。然而,这些阶段对未来的影响还没有被量化。我们的气候变化预测结果表明,Grijalva和Usumacinta河及其周边地区(恰帕斯和塔巴斯科)将在不久的将来(2015-2039年)出现干湿事件的百分比增加,而在SSR的其他地区发生这种情况的概率为中低。到2075-2099年,由于气候变化,Grijalva和Usumacinta将继续发生高概率的干旱事件,尤卡坦也将表现出这种行为。预测RCP 4.5是研究区域最潮湿的情景,而RCP 8.5预测两个时期(2015-2039年和2075-2099年)干旱事件增加。RCP 6.0预测2015-2039年较为干燥,2075-2099年较为湿润。墨西哥东南偏南地区的历史降水模式及未来预测
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Historical precipitation patterns in the South-Southeast region of Mexico and future projections
How to cite item Andrade-Velazquez, M., & Medrano-Perez, R. (2021). Historical precipitation patterns in the South-Southeast region of Mexico and future projections. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 25(1), 69-84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj. v25n1.87255 This study analyzed climate change scenarios and their potential impact on water availability for the South-Southeast region (SSR) of Mexico. Precipitation patterns were examined using the Standardized Precipitation Index for three emissions scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, during the periods of 1960-2016, 2015-2039 (near future), and 2075-2099 (far future). Historical changes in precipitation in the SSR indicated the presence of dry and wet events driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which are the regional climate modulators. However, the impact of these phases has not been quantified for the future. The results of our climate change projections show that the Grijalva and Usumacinta rivers and surrounding regions (Chiapas and Tabasco) will have an increase in the percentage of dry and wet events shortly (2015-2039), while there is a medium to a low probability of this occurrence in rest of the SSR. By 2075-2099, Grijalva and Usumacinta will continue to have a high probability of dry events due to climate change, and the Yucatan will also exhibit this behavior. RCP 4.5 was projected to be the wettest scenario for the study area, while RCP 8.5 projected an increase in dry events during both periods (2015-2039 and 2075-2099). RCP 6.0 projected a drier 2015-2039 and wetter 2075-2099. ABSTRACT Historical precipitation patterns in the South-Southeast region of Mexico and future projections
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来源期刊
Earth Sciences Research Journal
Earth Sciences Research Journal 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: ESRJ publishes the results from technical and scientific research on various disciplines of Earth Sciences and its interactions with several engineering applications. Works will only be considered if not previously published anywhere else. Manuscripts must contain information derived from scientific research projects or technical developments. The ideas expressed by publishing in ESRJ are the sole responsibility of the authors. We gladly consider manuscripts in the following subject areas: -Geophysics: Seismology, Seismic Prospecting, Gravimetric, Magnetic and Electrical methods. -Geology: Volcanology, Tectonics, Neotectonics, Geomorphology, Geochemistry, Geothermal Energy, ---Glaciology, Ore Geology, Environmental Geology, Geological Hazards. -Geodesy: Geodynamics, GPS measurements applied to geological and geophysical problems. -Basic Sciences and Computer Science applied to Geology and Geophysics. -Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences. -Oceanography. -Planetary Sciences. -Engineering: Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Engineering, Geological Engineering, Geotechnics.
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