估计新冠肺炎对印度尼西亚贫困的影响

IF 2 2区经济学 Q1 AREA STUDIES

Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI:10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390

A. Suryahadi, Ridho Al Izzati, D. Suryadarma

{"title":"估计新冠肺炎对印度尼西亚贫困的影响","authors":"A. Suryahadi, Ridho Al Izzati, D. Suryadarma","doi":"10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.","PeriodicalId":46063,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies","volume":"56 1","pages":"175 - 192"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390","citationCount":"132","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia\",\"authors\":\"A. Suryahadi, Ridho Al Izzati, D. Suryadarma\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46063,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies\",\"volume\":\"56 1\",\"pages\":\"175 - 192\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-05-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390\",\"citationCount\":\"132\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AREA STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2020.1779390","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AREA STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 132

摘要

Covid-19已经并将继续感染全世界数百万人。预计经济影响将是巨大的，数百万人将陷入贫困。在本文中，我们估计了Covid-19对印度尼西亚贫困的影响。预计经济影响将是严重的，2020年的经济增长率预计将从5%左右降至4.2%至-3.5%之间。我们发现，在最好的情况下，到2020年底，贫困率将从2019年9月的9.2%上升到9.7%，使130多万人陷入贫困。在最坏的情况下，贫困率将上升到16.6%，接近2004年的水平，当时贫困率为16.7%。这意味着将有1970多万人陷入贫困，大大扭转了印尼在减贫方面取得的进展。这意味着印尼将需要扩大其社会保护计划，以帮助新贫困人口和现有贫困人口。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Estimating the Impact of Covid-19 on Poverty in Indonesia

Covid-19 has infected and will continue to infect millions of people all over the world. The economic impact is predicted to be large and millions of people will be pushed into poverty. In this paper, we estimate the impact of Covid-19 on poverty in Indonesia. The economic impact is expected to be severe, reducing the economic growth rate projected for 2020 from about 5% to between 4.2% and –3.5%. We find that under the best-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase from 9.2% in September 2019 to 9.7% by the end of 2020, pushing 1.3 million more people into poverty. Under the worst-case scenario, the poverty rate will increase to 16.6%, close to the level seen in 2004 when the poverty rate was 16.7%. This means that 19.7 million more people will become poor, substantially reversing Indonesia’s progress in reducing poverty. The implication is that Indonesia will need to expand its social protection programs to assist the new poor as well as the existing poor.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies Multiple-

CiteScore

9.20

自引率

9.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, a peer-reviewed journal published by the Indonesia Project at The Australian National University"s College of Asia and the Pacific, fills a significant void by providing a well respected outlet for high-quality research on any and all matters pertaining to the Indonesian economy, and touching on closely related fields such as law, the environment, government and politics, demography, education and health. In doing so, it has played an important role in helping the world, and Indonesians themselves, to understand Indonesia.