Intrusive Seismic Swarms as Possible Precursors of Destructive Earthquakes on Mt. Etna’s Eastern Flank

The Timpe Fault System (TFS) represents the source of shallow earthquakes that strike numerous towns and villages on Mt. Etna eastern flank. In the last 40 years, three destructive seismic events reached I0 = VIII EMS (heavily damaging) - in 1984 (October 25), 2002 (October 29) and 2018 (December 26). These events followed a few days after the occurrence of strong seismic swarms and the sudden acceleration of the eastern flank seaward. However, if the 2002 and 2018 events were caused by stress induced by eruptive dike propagation, in October 1984 no eruption occurred. In this work, parameters such as localization, cumulative seismic moment and hourly occurrence frequency of the 1984 seismic swarm, have been analyzed and shown to have typical values of Mt. Etna intrusive seismic swarms. This suggests that the 1984 episode may have been an aborted intrusive magma episode that triggered similar processes (long and powerful intrusions with acceleration of the eastern flank movement and destructive earthquakes), as in 2002 and 2018. These three episodes suggest that an evaluation of some seismic parameters during future intrusive swarms may furnish indications of a possible re-activation of the TFS.