脱欧对英国贸易地理的影响

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS
Michael Gasiorek, Nicolò Tamberi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文调查了2016年英国脱欧公投以及英国与欧盟于2020年12月签署的《贸易与合作协议》对截至2021年12月的英国与欧盟货物贸易的影响。2016年的公投带来了不确定性,但直到新协议TCA于2021年1月生效,英国和欧盟之间才建立新的贸易壁垒。使用一套不同的计量经济技术,并展望TCA实施的第一年年底,我们没有发现任何证据表明2016年公投对英国与欧盟的贸易总额相对于比较国的贸易流量有任何影响。另一方面,我们的研究结果表明,TCA减少了英国与欧盟的贸易,但出口和进口不对称。在2021年1月暴跌约41%后,英国对欧盟的出口在接下来的几个月里迅速恢复。英国从欧盟的进口并非如此,2021年全年,英国从欧盟进口受到了负面影响,实施第一年的累计损失在-24%至-28%之间。出口和进口之间的不对称效应似乎并不是由两种流动的产品构成差异所驱动的。相反,我们发现有证据表明,与英国市场对欧盟公司的重要性相比,欧盟市场对英国公司的相对重要性是对这些差异效应的合理解释。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The effects of leaving the EU on the geography of UK trade
This paper investigates the effect of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) signed by the UK and the EU in December 2020 on UK-EU trade in goods up to December 2021. The 2016 referendum introduced uncertainty, but new trade barriers between the UK and the EU were not put in place until the new agreement, the TCA, entered into force in January 2021. Using a set of different econometric techniques, and looking up to the end of the first year of the implementation of the TCA, we find no evidence that the 2016 referendum had any impact on aggregate UK-EU trade relative to comparator trade flows. On the other hand, our results show that the TCA reduced UK trade with the EU, but asymmetrically for exports and imports. After a sharp drop of around 41% in January 2021, UK exports to the EU quickly recovered in the following months. This pattern of recovery was not the case for UK imports from the EU, which were negatively impacted throughout of 2021, with a cumulative loss over the first year of implementation between -24% and -28%. Asymmetric effects between exports and imports do not appear to be driven by difference in product composition of the two flows. Instead, we find evidence that a plausible explanation for these differential effects is the relative importance of the EU market for UK firms, in comparison to the importance of the UK market for EU firms.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
20.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: Ekonomicheskaya Politika is a broad-range economic journal devoted primarily to the study of the economic policy of present-day Russia as well as global economic problems. The subject matters of articles includes macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary, industrial, social, regulation and competition policyand more. The journal also publishes theoretical papers in such areas as political economy, general economic theory, welfare economics, law and economics,and institutional economics.. The character and the scope of economic problems studied in many publications require a multidisciplinary approach, consistent with the editorial policy of the journal. While the thematic scope of articles is generally related to Russia, the aim of editorial policy is to cover politico-economic processes in the modern world and international economic relations, as well. In addition, Ekonomicheskaya Politika publishes Russian translations of classical and significant modern works of foreign economists.
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