俄罗斯学生家庭:婚姻的决定因素

IF 0.2 Q4 SOCIOLOGY
T. Rostovskaya, O. Kuchmaeva, O. Zolotareva
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引用次数: 1

摘要

出生率下降到甚至不能确保人口简单繁殖的水平,这导致了经济和社会领域的问题以及移民危机,这对许多发达国家来说是一个挑战。人口和家庭政策措施旨在解决这一问题,例如,总统令于2021年7月2日批准的《俄罗斯国家安全战略》反映了这一点:出生率的提高被宣布为增加国家人口的必要条件。在当代俄罗斯,生育率的年龄模式发生了变化:过去15年推迟生育的做法越来越普遍,导致母亲的模式年龄增加了5岁以上,这是生育率下降的一个因素。能够改变这一趋势但缺乏应有关注的机制之一是学生家庭制度。本研究旨在确定那些决定学生青年结婚意向的因素。本文基于对Rosstat调查数据的定量分析和作者的社会学研究,包括逻辑模型和决策树方法,可以进行建模和选择因素来确定学生婚姻的决定因素。建模结果揭示了学生及其父母家庭的价值体系结构在婚姻动机和开始家庭生活中的作用。具有现实意义的主要结论之一是,婚姻青年作为人生道路上的一个关键阶段,在推迟生育和降低出生率的情况下,决定了国家对学生家庭支持的必要性。这项研究的结果有助于解决出生率下降和老龄化这一复杂的人口问题,这需要系统的工作来塑造一个幸福的学生家庭的形象,并引入支持它的机制。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Russian student family: Determinants of marriage
The birth rate reducing to the level that does not ensure even the simple reproduction of the population, which leads to problems in the economy and social sphere and to migration crises, is a challenge for many developed countries. The demographic and family policy measures aim at solving this problem, which is reflected, for instance, in the Russian National Security Strategy approved on July 2, 2021 by the Decree of the President: the increasing birth rate is declared a required condition for increasing the country’s population. In contemporary Russia, the age model of fertility has transformed: the spreading practice of postponing childbirth in the last fifteen years has led to an increase in the modal age of mothers by more than five years, which is a factor in the decline in fertility. One of the mechanisms that can change this trend but lacks the due attention is the institution of the student family. The study aims at identifying those factors that determine the marriage intentions of the student youth. The article is based on the quantitative analysis of the surveys data of the Rosstat and authors’ sociological research, including logistic models and the decision tree method, which allowed to conduct modeling and select factors to identify the determinants of student marriage. The modeling results revealed the role of the value-system structure of students and their parental family in the motivation for marriage and starting family life. One of the main conclusions of practical significance is the confirmed importance for the youth of marriage as such and as a key stage in the life path, which under the postponing childbirth and reducing birth rate determines the need for the state support for the student family. The results of the study can help to solve a complex demographic problem of the decline and aging of the birth rate, which requires systematic work to create an image of the happy student family and to introduce mechanisms for supporting it.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
20.00%
发文量
53
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: The mission of the Journal is a broad exchange of scientific information, and of the results of theoretical and empirical studies of the researchers from different fields of sociology: history of sociology, sociology of management, political sociology, economic sociology, sociology of culture, etc., philosophy, political science, demography – both in Russia and abroad. The articles of the Journal are grouped under ‘floating’ rubrics (chosen specially to structure the main themes of each issue), with the following rubrics as basic: Theory, Methodology and History of Sociological Research Contemporary Society: The Urgent Issues and Prospects for Development Surveys, Experiments, Case Studies Sociology of Organizations Sociology of Management Sociological Lectures. The titles of the rubrics are generally broadly formulated so that, despite the obvious theoretical focus of most articles (this is the principal distinguishing feature of the Series forming the image of the scientific journal), in each section we can publish articles differing substantially in their area of study and subject matter, conceptual focus, methodological tools of empirical research, the country of origin and disciplinary affiliation.
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