人们重新审视了共识性房地产预测的准确性

IF 2.1 Q2 URBAN STUDIES

Journal of Property Research Pub Date : 2020-02-05 DOI:10.1080/09599916.2020.1720784

P. Mcallister, I. Nase

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引用次数: 3

摘要

本研究更新并扩展了现有的关于IPF共识预测准确性的工作。本文评估了共识预测能够预测相对业绩的程度。本文还评估了隐含收益率预测的准确性，并得出收益率预测失败是资本增长和总收益预测失败的主要原因。实际和预测的行业排名高度一致。发现了悲观偏见的证据。使用一系列预测性能指标，产量预测总是表现最差。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The accuracy of consensus real estate forecasts revisited

ABSTRACT This study updates and expands upon the existing work on the accuracy of the IPF’s Consensus Forecasts. The paper evaluates the extent to which the consensus forecasts were able to predict the relative performance. It also assesses the accuracy of implied yield forecasts and concludes that failure in yield forecasting is the main source of failure in forecasts of capital growth and total returns. A high level of agreement between the actual and forecasted sector rankings was found. Evidence of a pessimism bias was identified. Yield forecasts are consistently found to perform worst using a range of forecast performance metrics.

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来源期刊

Journal of Property Research URBAN STUDIES-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Property Research is an international journal. The title reflects the expansion of research, particularly applied research, into property investment and development. The Journal of Property Research publishes papers in any area of real estate investment and development. These may be theoretical, empirical, case studies or critical literature surveys.