V. V. Vlasov, A. M. Deryabin, O. V. Zatsepin, G. D. Kaminsky, E. V. Karamov, A. L. Karmanov, S. N. Lebedev, G. N. Rykovanov, A. V. Sokolov, M. A. Teplykh, A. S. Turgiyev, K. E. Khatuntsev
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Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Incidence in Moscow with an Agent-Based Model
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic created an emergency situation in the public
health system in Russia and in the world, which entailed the need to develop tools for predicting
the progression of the pandemic and assessing the potential interventions. In the present day
context, numerical simulation is actively used to solve such problems. The paper considers a
COVID-19 agent-based megalopolis model. The model was developed in 2020 and was further
refined in subsequent years. The capabilities of the model include the description of simultaneous
spread of several virus strains and taking into account data on vaccination and population
activity. The model parameters are calculated using statistical data on the daily number of newly
diagnosed COVID-19 cases.
期刊介绍：
Journal of Applied and Industrial Mathematics is a journal that publishes original and review articles containing theoretical results and those of interest for applications in various branches of industry. The journal topics include the qualitative theory of differential equations in application to mechanics, physics, chemistry, biology, technical and natural processes; mathematical modeling in mechanics, physics, engineering, chemistry, biology, ecology, medicine, etc.; control theory; discrete optimization; discrete structures and extremum problems; combinatorics; control and reliability of discrete circuits; mathematical programming; mathematical models and methods for making optimal decisions; models of theory of scheduling, location and replacement of equipment; modeling the control processes; development and analysis of algorithms; synthesis and complexity of control systems; automata theory; graph theory; game theory and its applications; coding theory; scheduling theory; and theory of circuits.
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