Lethal leverage: false confessions, false pleas, and wrongful homicide convictions in death-eligible cases

ABSTRACT Substantial attention to wrongful convictions has been developing since the 1990s. This research examines known cases of exonerations and factors that contribute to known wrongful convictions. The issues explored include false confessions, false guilty pleas, and death jurisdiction that impact known wrongful homicide convictions. Literature shows that false confessions can affect relationships with defense attorneys, jury perceptions, other evidentiary analyses, and sentencing outcomes. This research measures the effect of death-eligibility on false confessions and guilty pleas and how those admissions of guilt affect the likelihood of receiving a death sentence. Using data from the National Registry of Exonerations, we estimate probabilities of false confessions, guilty pleas, and death sentences based on multiple predictor variables. Results reveal three major findings. First, African Americans accused of homicide in known wrongful conviction cases, where the homicide victims were mostly female, where false and misleading forensic evidence and official misconduct were present, are statistically most likely to have falsely confessed. Second, guilty pleas were mostly likely produced in death-eligible jurisdictions, net of control factors. And third, death sentences were most likely to have been imposed on male exonerees where the homicide victims were mostly female, where official misconduct was present, and who had falsely confessed.