评论:概率更新的历史和局限性

IF 3.9 1区数学 Q1 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Statistical Science Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI:10.1214/21-STS765A

G. Shafer

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引用次数: 0

摘要

Gong和孟表明，我们可以通过承认表面上精确的概率存在于一个更大的不精确概率世界中，从而深入了解关于条件概率的经典悖论。它们还表明，在这个更大的世界里，更新的概念变得有问题。仔细观察更新概念的历史发展可以让我们进一步了解它的局限性。

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Comment: On the History and Limitations of Probability Updating

Gong and Meng show that we can gain insights into classical paradoxes about conditional probability by acknowledging that apparently precise probabilities live within a larger world of imprecise probability. They also show that the notion of updating becomes problematic in this larger world. A closer look at the historical development of the notion of updating can give us further insights into its limitations.

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来源期刊

Statistical Science 数学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

6.50

自引率

1.80%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： The central purpose of Statistical Science is to convey the richness, breadth and unity of the field by presenting the full range of contemporary statistical thought at a moderate technical level, accessible to the wide community of practitioners, researchers and students of statistics and probability.