泛非绿色长城对萨赫勒夏季降水的潜在影响:基于MPAS的全球模式方法

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
G. Smiatek, H. Kunstmann
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引用次数: 2

摘要

泛非撒哈拉和萨赫勒地区绿色长城倡议(GGW)是一项旨在扭转土地退化的再造林计划。我们研究了在0.8 ~ 1.25 Mill之间的三种假设的GGW过程中,林地稀树草原土地利用变化的平均降水特征。在100-400毫米等斜线之间。本次调查采用了全球跨尺度预测模式(MPAS),在6月至9月的雨季使用40个成员,在8月的降水高峰期使用50个成员。与观测资料相比,MPAS模拟结果表明,东部萨赫勒地区存在约33%的湿偏,西部萨赫勒地区存在- 41%的中度干偏。我们的模拟没有为GGW引起的夏季降水特征变化提供任何重要证据,也没有为萨赫勒地区支持造林活动的积极变化提供任何重要证据,也没有为邻近地区潜在的不利变化提供任何重要证据。在区域尺度上,变化是存在的,但在5%的水平上变化不显著。此外,模拟诸如温度、辐射通量或径流等其他水文气象变量的变化相对较小。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Potential impact of the pan-African Great Green Wall on Sahelian summer precipitation: A global modeling approach with MPAS
The pan-African Great GreenWall for the Sahara and the Sahel initiative (GGW) is a reforestation program to reverse the degradation of land. We investigate characteristics of mean precipitation due to proposed land use changes to woody savannah with three hypothetical courses of the GGW, with an area between 0.8 to 1.25 Mill. km2, and between the 100–400 mm isohyetes. The global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) was applied for this investigation, employing ensembles with 40 members for the rainy season from June to September and 50 members for August where precipitation has its peak. In comparison to observational reference, the results show that a wet bias on the order of 33% in the eastern Sahel and a moderate dry bias of −41% in the western part are present in the MPAS simulations. Our simulations do not provide any significant evidence for GGW induced changes in the characteristics of the summer precipitation, nor for positive changes within the Sahel supporting the forestation activities, nor for potentially adverse changes in the neighboring regions. At the regional scale, changes are present, but they are not significant at the 5% level. Also, changes simulated for further hydrometerological variables such as temperature, radiation fluxes or runoff are comparatively small.
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来源期刊
Earth Interactions
Earth Interactions 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
5.00%
发文量
16
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Publishes research on the interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere, including, but not limited to, research on human impacts, such as land cover change, irrigation, dams/reservoirs, urbanization, pollution, and landslides. Earth Interactions is a joint publication of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, and American Association of Geographers.
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