爱荷华州电子市场席位分布预测2022年美国众议院和参议院选举:回顾

IF 1 4区社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Polity Pub Date : 2023-05-23 DOI:10.1086/725241

Joyce E. Berg, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas A. Rietz

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引用次数: 1

摘要

爱荷华电子市场（IEM）是一个基于互联网的真实货币期货市场，合约价格揭示了未来事件的信息。自1988年以来，IEM一直在管理选举市场，建立了准确的记录。自主选择的IEM交易员投资自己的资金并交易合同，收益与未来的选举结果挂钩。这激励了准确的预测。当决定价格的交易者的信念发生变化时，价格也会发生变化。因此，IEM价格动态

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Iowa Electronic Markets Seat Distribution Forecasts for the 2022 U.S. House and Senate Elections: A Retrospective

The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are real-money, internet-based futures markets where contract prices reveal information about future events. Since 1988, the IEM has run election markets establishing a track record of accuracy. Self-selected IEM traders invest their own money and trade contracts with payoffs tied to future election outcomes. This incentivizes accurate forecasting. Prices change when price-determining traders’ beliefs change. Thus, IEM price dynamics

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来源期刊

Polity POLITICAL SCIENCE-

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Since its inception in 1968, Polity has been committed to the publication of scholarship reflecting the full variety of approaches to the study of politics. As journals have become more specialized and less accessible to many within the discipline of political science, Polity has remained ecumenical. The editor and editorial board welcome articles intended to be of interest to an entire field (e.g., political theory or international politics) within political science, to the discipline as a whole, and to scholars in related disciplines in the social sciences and the humanities. Scholarship of this type promises to be highly "productive" - that is, to stimulate other scholars to ask fresh questions and reconsider conventional assumptions.