Mann-Kendall试验和Theil Sen斜率是否未能告知水文中的趋势重要性和幅度？

IF 2.8 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques Pub Date : 2023-05-16 DOI:10.1080/02626667.2023.2212166

Jiahua Zhou, Matthew J. Deitch, S. Grunwald, E. Screaton

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引用次数: 2

摘要

Mann-Kendall (MK)检验经常用于水文时间序列的趋势检测，尽管在缺失数据和数据聚合(日、月平均值)的影响下，其能力尚未得到系统研究。我们使用蒙特卡罗实验来检验MK检验的功率和Theil-Sen (TS)估计器的准确度/精度如何受到缺失数据和取数据平均值的影响。本文提出了一个使用实际测量的案例研究，以评估MK测试和TS估计的结果是否与不同的平均窗口大小一致。结果显示，缺失数据和平均窗口大小对MK检验的有效性有交互影响。TS斜率准确;然而，对于次要趋势，它的精度很低。我们的案例研究表明，TS斜率对于不同的平均窗大小是稳定的，而MK测试的结果则不是。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Do the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope fail to inform trend significance and magnitude in hydrology?

ABSTRACT The Mann-Kendall (MK) test is frequently used for trend detection in hydrological time series although its power has not been systematically studied under the influence of both missing data and aggregation of data (daily, monthly averages). We used Monte Carlo experiments to examine how the power of the MK test and the accuracy/precision of the Theil-Sen (TS) estimator are affected by missing data and taking averages of the data. A case study using real measurements is presented to evaluate whether the results of the MK test and TS estimates are consistent with different averaging window sizes. Results show interactive effects of missing data and averaging window size on the power of the MK test. The TS slope was accurate; however, its precision was low for minor trends. Our case study showed the TS slope was stable against different averaging window sizes, while the results of the MK test were not.

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来源期刊

Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 环境科学-水资源

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

11.40%

发文量

144

审稿时长

9.8 months

期刊介绍： Hydrological Sciences Journal is an international journal focused on hydrology and the relationship of water to atmospheric processes and climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal is the official journal of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). Hydrological Sciences Journal aims to provide a forum for original papers and for the exchange of information and views on significant developments in hydrology worldwide on subjects including: Hydrological cycle and processes Surface water Groundwater Water resource systems and management Geographical factors Earth and atmospheric processes Hydrological extremes and their impact Hydrological Sciences Journal offers a variety of formats for paper submission, including original articles, scientific notes, discussions, and rapid communications.