印度马希盆地的时空降雨量变化和趋势

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Climate Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI:10.3390/cli11080163

Uttam V. Pawar, P. Hire, M. Gunathilake, Upaka S. Rathnayake

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引用次数: 1

摘要

气候变化会对降雨量产生影响，从而显著影响洪水和干旱的震级和频率。因此，分析印度马希盆地降雨量的时空分布、变化和趋势是本工作的一个重要目标。因此，在降雨量分析中使用了序列自相关、变异系数、Mann–Kendall（MK）和Sen斜率检验、创新趋势分析（ITA）和Pettitt检验。结果来自马希盆地14个气象站的月降水量数据（1901–2012）。序列自相关结果表明，数据序列中不存在自相关。降雨量统计数据表明，马希盆地的降雨量占季风期（6月至9月）的94.8%（821毫米）。与平均值的归一化累积偏差表明，1901年至1930年，马希盆地的年降雨量和季风降雨量低于平均值，1930年至1990年高于平均值，随后出现了一段波动期。流域较低流域的年降雨量和季风降雨量变化增加。年降雨量和季风降雨量趋势分析表明，四个站的降雨量呈显著下降趋势，三个站的降雨呈上升趋势。所审查的9个监测站的冬季降雨量有明显下降趋势。同样，在14个测站中，有9个测站表示季前降雨量显著减少。尽管如此，马希盆地的年降雨量、季风降雨量和季风后降雨量没有显著的增加或减少趋势。Mann-Kendall检验和创新趋势分析表明，流域尺度上的年降雨量和季节降雨量趋势相同。1926年以后，该流域的年降雨量和季风降雨量出现了正变化。降雨量分析证实，尽管降雨量存在时空变化，但在流域尺度上，年降雨量和季风降雨量没有显著的正趋势或负趋势。这表明，除了几年的高降雨量和低降雨量外，马希盆地在1901年至2012年的季风季节（821毫米）每年平均降雨量（867毫米）。因此，本研究对马海流域的水旱管理、农业和水资源管理具有重要意义。

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Spatiotemporal Rainfall Variability and Trends over the Mahi Basin, India

Climate change can have an influence on rainfall that significantly affects the magnitude frequency of floods and droughts. Therefore, the analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution, variability, and trends of rainfall over the Mahi Basin in India is an important objective of the present work. Accordingly, a serial autocorrelation, coefficient of variation, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope test, innovative trend analysis (ITA), and Pettitt’s test were used in the rainfall analysis. The outcomes were derived from the monthly precipitation data (1901–2012) of 14 meteorology stations in the Mahi Basin. The serial autocorrelation results showed that there is no autocorrelation in the data series. The rainfall statistics denoted that the Mahi Basin receives 94.8% of its rainfall (821 mm) in the monsoon period (June–September). The normalized accumulated departure from the mean reveals that the annual and monsoon rainfall of the Mahi Basin were below average from 1901 to 1930 and above average from 1930 to 1990, followed by a period of fluctuating conditions. Annual and monsoon rainfall variations increase in the lower catchment of the basin. The annual and monsoon rainfall trend analysis specified a significant declining tendency for four stations and an increasing tendency for 3 stations, respectively. A significant declining trend in winter rainfall was observed for 9 stations under review. Likewise, out of 14 stations, 9 stations denote a significant decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall. Nevertheless, there is no significant increasing or decreasing tendency in annual, monsoon, and post-monsoon rainfall in the Mahi Basin. The Mann–Kendall test and innovative trend analysis indicate identical tendencies of annual and seasonal rainfall on the basin scale. The annual and monsoon rainfall of the basin showed a positive shift in rainfall after 1926. The rainfall analysis confirms that despite spatiotemporal variations in rainfall, there are no significant positive or negative trends of annual and monsoon rainfall on the basin scale. It suggests that the Mahi Basin received average rainfall (867 mm) annually and in the monsoon season (821 mm) from 1901 to 2012, except for a few years of high and low rainfall. Therefore, this study is important for flood and drought management, agriculture, and water management in the Mahi Basin.

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来源期刊

Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

5.40%

发文量

172

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.