Climate change, in-situ adaptation, and migration decisions of smallholder farmers in central Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Despite a surge of literature on migration and climate change, evidence on the impact of climate change and variability on migration is inconclusive and the roles of in-situ adaptation strategies in migration decisions are unclear. Focusing on smallholder farmers in central Ethiopia, this study investigates the effects of climate variables and the use of in-situ adaptation strategies on households’ migration decisions. The data were analysed using a multi-level discrete-time event-history model. The results show that rainfall increase during the short rainy season [March–May] reduces migration and that of the long rainy season [June–September] increases migration. Early onset of rain during both seasons reduces migration whereas late onset increases migration. The propensity to migrate was low for households using crop diversification but high for those changing crop type and engaging in non-farm activities. The findings suggest that rainfall amount and variability instigate migration for survival among vulnerable farmers through its adverse effect on crop production and food availability. Rainfall-related livelihood problems can be addressed and distress migration can be reduced through agro-technical supports of in-situ adaptation, promoting gainful employment in rural areas, increasing income-earning capacities of potential migrants, and widening pro-poor employment opportunities in urban areas.