Strategic stability and the proliferation of conventional precision strike: a (bounded) case for optimism?

What are the potential deterrence advantages for new states seeking to acquire long-range conventional precision strike (LRCPS)? Using the case of Poland, this article argues that such LRCPS proliferation offers two possible deterrent benefits. First, LRCPS strengthens its possessors’ ability to threaten aggressors with costs in the form of both counterforce denial and countervalue punishment, thereby reducing dependence on great-power allies’ extended-deterrence commitments. Second, it provides a new center of retaliatory decision proximate to the threat, thereby strengthening the credibility of great-power allies’ extended-deterrence commitments. However, while LRCPS capabilities may indeed bring certain advantages, they may also exacerbate political hostilities, incentivize escalation, and lack the survivability and penetrability needed to generate the envisioned deterrence effects. Thus, the overall consequences of such proliferation for strategic stability and associated international security are ambiguous, meriting a case-by-case analysis. If LRCPS is pursued nonetheless, meanwhile, then a countervailing combination of operational and strategic measures may be employed to reduce both first-strike temptations and adversaries’ broader fears.