Allocation of public goods, ethnic favouritism and the risk of local ethnic wars in sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT Ethnic favouritism in the distribution of public goods has been a common problem in multi-ethnic countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Is inequitable allocation of public goods associated with ethnic conflict and war? This study connects the literatures on ethnic competition, rent-seeking and public goods and examines whether impartial allocation of public goods by governments affect the onset of local ethnic wars in 40 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It is expected that particularistic policy-making in the allocation of public goods can increase the risk of local ethnic wars in sub-Saharan Africa because it can contribute to horizontal group grievances and rent-seeking over state resources. Analyses of 40 sub-Saharan African countries from 1946 to 2010 show that a one standard deviation change public versus particularistic goods provision appears to reduce the risk of local ethnic wars by a substantial 27–59% with consideration of a battery of control variables. To facilitate peace in the sub-Saharan countries, policy makers and states should promote impartial policies targeted at the allocation of public goods for all communities and groups.