The structure of the nonmarine fossil record: predictions from a coupled stratigraphic–paleoecological model of a coastal basin

Abstract. Presented here is a coupled model of the nonmarine fossil record, based on a geometric model of deposition, a random-branching model of evolution, and an ecological model based on an elevation gradient. This model provides testable predictions about the stratigraphy and fossil occurrences in coastal nonmarine settings under three scenarios of sea-level change. A slow relative rise in sea level causes a declining ratio of channel to floodplain deposits, plus changes in community composition that reflect an upward increase in elevation relative to sea level. A rapid relative rise in sea level drives increasing aggradation rates, decreases the ratio of channel to floodplain deposits, and triggers a shift from higher-elevation (more inland) to lower-elevation (more coastal) communities. A fall in sea level produces an unconformity, manifested by valleys separated by interfluves. The resumption of deposition following the sea-level fall causes an abrupt shift in community composition across the unconformity, reflecting the duration of the hiatus and the increased elevation relative to sea level. This produces a cluster of first and last occurrences at the unconformity, and it is the only sequence-stratigraphic source of such clusters in a nonmarine system, in contrast to the multiple mechanisms for generating these clusters in marine systems. A central prediction of these models is that the nonmarine fossil record preserves systematic changes in community composition that reflect elevation (or equivalently, distance from shore). Diagnosing these gradients in ancient systems is a promising avenue of future research.