Actual and perceived polarization on independence-unification views in Taiwan

ABSTRACT The rise of political polarization and its consequences for democracies have attracted much attention. But why the growing polarization? We argue that the main reason lies in the fact people act on the basis of not only their self-identities but also their perception of others, especially those viewed as the opposing group. In Taiwan, independence or unification with China is no doubt the most fundamental political cleavage. We therefore focus on the nature, sources, and consequences of such polarization in the mass public. This study (1) defines and operationalizes both perceived and actual polarization on independence-unification issue at individual level, (2) explores which individual characteristics such as Taiwanese-Chinese identity, partisanship, and media exposure are differentially related to the two types of polarization, and (3) compares consequences of perceived and actual polarization for citizens' affective polarization. We find that both an individual's Chinese–Taiwanese identity and partisanship contribute most to higher levels of perceived polarization, which in turn penetrates into social life and is significantly associated with negative emotions toward child's potential interparty marriage. The key implication of our study is that to prevent the self-perpetuating upward trend of political polarization, we should understand the determinants of the associated misperception.